Steady Growth Ahead: An Economic Outlook from Steve Slifer
Slifer says, in short, don't freak out.
At this week's Economic Forecast Breakfast, presented by BlueCross BlueShield of South Carolina, economist Steve Slifer provided an insightful look into the current and future state of the economy. His message was clear: while challenges exist, the overall outlook remains steady and resilient.
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Consumer sentiment may be shaky, but Americans are still spending, employment remains strong, and household net worth continues to rise.
In the housing market, mortgage rates have stabilized and could decline slightly by the end of the year, helping affordability improve. The good news for owners is home prices are still increasing. The good news for buyers is the increase is at a slower pace than previous years.
Small business optimism, while not soaring, remains higher than it has been in recent years—another sign that there’s no cause for alarm, according to Slifer. Corporate profits are solid, adding to the positive momentum across the economy.
Internationally, recent tariff announcements caused the U.S. dollar to dip after a period of strength. Slifer emphasized that this is part of a broader balancing act and not a sign of a sustained decline. However, tariffs could slow global growth, disrupt supply chains, and put upward pressure on inflation.
Slifer remains optimistic that the tariffs, as they have been presented, will not actually be implemented for very long or at all.
On the labor front, the market remains strong and unemployment stable. However, with a significant decline in border patrol encounters, the U.S. is seeing a decrease in immigration, which could tighten the labor supply over time.
One of the most transformative forces in today’s economy, according to Slifer, is artificial intelligence. He compared AI’s productivity gains to the impact the internet had on economic growth decades ago—a development that will continue reshaping industries and opportunities.
In short, the forecast is steady: not booming, but not faltering either. Slifer’s bottom line: While we could hope for better conditions, there’s no need to brace for a significant downturn.
